All eyes are on Campaign '08!
Nov 3, 2008 9:04 am US/Eastern
DeFede: What To Watch On Election Night
MIAMI (CBS4) ―
Before heading out to those election night parties, it is always a good idea to brush up on a few thoughtful insights that you can trot out to impress those around you while you await returns.
Here are a few things to keep an eye on after the polls close:
1. Virginia. Polls close here at 7:00 p.m. and because of its size, results from this state will come in quickly. In fact, Virginia will probably be the first swing state to be called by the networks. If Barack Obama wins Virginia the chances of John McCain being able to get to 270 electoral votes shrinks dramatically.
2. Pennsylvania. McCain has invested time and money in the Keystone State because it is his best, and possibly his only, shot at finding a path to 270. If Obama, however, is able to hold on to Pennsylvania (Democrats won the state in each of the last four presidential elections) and he can couple that with a win in Virginia, then you might as well go to bed early, because for all intent and purposes the election is over. All Obama would have to do after winning Virginia and Pennsylvania is win just one – JUST ONE – of the remaining swing states: Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. These are all states that Bush carried in 2004, but according to the polls, Obama is now ahead in most of them.
If, however, McCain wins Pennsylvania, then it could be a long night, with Obama needing to turn one of the other big states (Ohio or Florida) blue, or find some combination of smaller Western states to get to 270. McCain, on the other hand, would just need to hold onto most of the states Bush won four years ago.
3. Miami-Dade County. In order for Democrats to win Florida, they need to run up big leads in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties to offset the beating they will likely take across the rest of the state.
In 2004, John Kerry received 48,000 more votes in Miami-Dade County than George Bush.
In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by 39,000 votes in Miami-Dade County.
Although the Obama campaign doesn't like to talk about the numbers they need from the individual counties, sources inside the campaign concede they are looking to come out of Miami-Dade County with a 100,000-vote advantage. This is the reason they have 11 field offices open throughout Miami-Dade and it is why they moved one of their senior strategists, Steve Hildebrand, from Chicago to Miami three weeks ago.
Watch the vote totals in Miami Dade. If the Obama campaign comes out of Miami-Dade with 100,000 more votes than McCain that is a good sign Obama will win the state. If McCain can keep Obama's advantage in Miami-Dade closer to the numbers received by Gore and Kerry, then the Republicans believe they will hold on to Florida. McCain's midnight rally on Sunday in Miami was designed to try and keep the numbers close in Miami-Dade, where Obama has enjoyed a huge advantage among early voters.
4. Broward County. If Miami-Dade County is about vote totals, the key to watch in Broward is percentage of registered voters turning out to the polls. In both, 2000 and 2004, the Democratic presidential candidate beat George Bush by more than 200,000 votes. But the percentage of voters going to the polls in each of those years was under 70 percent. In 2000 the turnout in Broward was 66 percent and in 2004 the turnout was 67 percent.
(In comparison, Dade voter turnout was 73 percent in 2000 and 74 percent in 2004.)
In 1992, voter turnout in Broward was 83 percent.
If turnout in Broward, is above 70 percent this year that will almost certainly help Obama. If turnout remains in the mid 60s, that will mean fewer Democrats are heading to the polls, and while Obama will still win the county easily, he might not be able to roll up the votes needed to help him win the state overall.
5. Ellyn Bogdanoff. The state representative in Broward is a Republican in the heart of a Democratic county and is facing the toughest battle of her political career. This is one of the races I'll be watching. Can the power of incumbency be enough to stem what might be a Democratic tidal wave in her district?
6. Luis Garcia. The only Cuban Democrat in the Florida Legislature, Garcia, the former Miami Beach fire chief, is facing re-election for the first time after winning what had been a Republican seat in the state House of Representatives in 2006. The Republicans want this seat back and are running Jorge Lopez, who was part of the inner circle of former Miami-Dade mayor Alex Penelas. Was Garcia's election two years ago a fluke or can a Cuban Democrat hang on in Little Havana?
7. Amendment 2. The amendment to enshrine a gay marriage ban in the state's constitution needs 60 percent to pass. If it does pass, Christian conservatives will have just one person to thank: Barack Obama. One of the unintended consequences of having Obama on the ballot (and the resulting historic turnout in the black community) is that this amendment has a much better chance of passing.
Black voters tend to be conservative in their views when it comes to homosexuality. If you want to get a sense if this amendment is going to pass, watch the predominantly black precincts in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Duval counties. If they are voting heavily both for Obama and Amendment 2, then the 60 percent margin the amendment's supporters need will be well within their reach.
8. Lincoln Diaz-Balart vs. Raul Martinez. Forget about Hialeah. If you want to see who is going to win this race, watch the early returns from Pembroke Pines and Miramar on the northern edge of this congressional district. Although this contest has been billed as a battle of two Cuban American heavyweights, this race will be decided by the Anglo voters who live outside of Hialeah, the district's hub.
Martinez, the former Hialeah mayor, needs Anglos and non-Cuban Hispanics to vote for him in overwhelming numbers to make up for the advantage Diaz-Balart will have with traditional Cuban Republican voters. If the early returns from Broward or Miami Lakes or Doral are splitting fairly evenly, or may only be giving a slight advantage to the Democrat Martinez, then Martinez will lose.
Nobody understood this better, by the way, than Diaz-Balart. This has been the nastiest and dirtiest congressional race in the country and the reason Diaz-Balart went unrelentingly negative, was to scare Anglo voters about Martinez and make him unacceptable in their eyes. And it has probably worked. Raul's biggest problem is that he never took the time to define himself for voters who live outside of Hialeah. As a result, he allowed Diaz-Balart to define him in terms that would be terrifying to the average non-Cuban voter.
9. Mario Diaz-Balart vs. Joe Garcia. This congressional race has the exact same dynamics working for it as the Diaz-Balart/Martinez race. This race will be decided not by Cubans, but by undecided non-Cubans. The main difference, Garcia has done a much better job courting that non-Cuban vote. He has made his campaign about the home mortgage crisis and the need for affordable healthcare. Garcia appeals strongly to those voters who believe the Diaz-Balarts care more about what happens 90 miles to the south of us than what is taking place in our own country. Garcia may have started off as the under card in the fight between Lincoln and Raul, but his race is now getting a lot more attention from national Democratic Party.
Three months ago, most Washington political analysts thought that if one of the Diaz-Balarts were going to lose this year, it would have been Lincoln losing to Raul Martinez. Now most observers believe that the Diaz-Balart in the most trouble is Mario.
This congressional district is the largest in the state, covering most of the Everglades. Watch the returns from Naples and Northwest Dade, if the numbers start coming back heavily for Garcia, this could well be one of the big political stories of the night. And this is a race where Obama's get out the vote machine in South Florida could help Garcia squeak out a victory.
10. Al Lamberti vs. Scott Israel. This race for Broward Sheriff turned unexpectedly nasty. Lamberti, the Republican appointed by the governor to replace Ken The Crook, obviously felt he had no chance of beating Democrat Scott Israel without going negative. It's actually been kind of sad to see. Lamberti might have been better served running a positive campaign on his accomplishments in turning the Broward Sheriff's Office around after the Ken Jenne debacle and hope voters could look past the "R" next to his name. Now he might have just fired up a Democratic base to crush him.
11. Tim Mahoney and Tom Feeney. Proving that scandals are bipartisan, these two Florida congressmen, Mahoney a Palm Beach Democrat, and Feeney, an Orlando Republican, will lose their congressional seats after showing them to be ethically challenged. Mahoney is the sleazy cad who cheated on his wife with one of his staffers, whom he later fired and then paid off; and Feeney is under investigation for his dealings with convicted Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Neither will be missed.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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