Feb 19, 2008 10:11 am US/Eastern
Castro Resigns: What Comes Next?
MIAMI (CBS4.com) ―
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Raul Castro, one of the possible candidates to take over as President of Cuba.
CBS
As Fidel Castro leaves a presidency he's held for almost half a century, the question being asked by Cuban exiles in Miami and leaders in Washington is who will step in when he's gone. While the consensus seems to be his brother Raul, there are others waiting in the wings.
Among those who could be considered to walk in Castro's footsteps are:
Carlos Lage
Cuba's Vice President, considered a strong favorite among some in Cuba's power structure, holds one of the highest positions in Cuba's government.
Ricardo Alarcon
A name known to many in the U.S., he served as Cuba's ambassador to the United Nations and frequently sought out for insight into Cuban government decisions.
Felipe Perez Roque
Cuba's foreign minister, a very important post in the Cuban government. He is also the youngest candidate for the position.
Ramiro Valdez
One of the historical figures of the revolution, Valdez has served as Minister of Communications since 2006.
Esteban Lazo
One of the highest ranking afro-cuban's in the nation's government, he heads the Department of Ideology and holds other posts in the communist party.
While each of these candidates have their supporters, Fidel Castro has made it clear he wants his younger brother to succeed him. Despite his resignation, and his illness, Castro's wishes still carry huge weight in Cuba. Castro is not surrendering his seat as 1st Secretary of the Communist Party, and in Cuba the real seat of power rests with the party.
Not knowing for certain who will lead the island nation just 90 miles off U.S. shores hampers the ability to predict what will come next, but most who follow Cuba do not expect the kind of massive change which followed change in governments in the former Warsaw Pact nations, where communism was abandoned as Soviet influence waned.
Upon learning of Castro's decision, President Bush declared it was time to bring democracy to Cuba, but there is little evidence that support for that type of dramatic change exists on the island either among the party leaders or the general populace.
Since being handed the reigns of authority over Cuban government last year by his brother, political analysts say Raul Castro has been steady and predictable, but they note there have been some small hints of change, including an indication by Raul that he might entertain some dialogue with the U.S. as well as a greater discussion of controversial issues within the country.
Even if Raul does assume the presidency, he will not be the free agent and charismatic figure his brother Fidel was. Many expect the next president will be under a tighter control from the Politburo, the ruling political body of the Cuban system. Instead of government by fiat, as Fidel ran Cuba, it is more likely major decisions and major policy will be decided by committee, with the President the public face of the party.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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