DeFede

Poll: Diaz-Balart, Martinez Race Tight

(CBS4) The race between Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Raul Martinez is a virtual dead heat, according to a new poll by Bendixen & Associates, with Republican Diaz-Balart favored by 41 percent of those polled and Martinez, a Democrat, capturing 37 percent.

The poll, conducted between June 6 and June 22, has a margin of error of five points.

And although this marquee Congressional race has been billed as a battle of heavyweights, between the two most charismatic and best known Cuban American politicians in South Florida, this election will ultimately be decided by non-Cubans – specifically Anglos and blacks, many of whom are still undecided.

"These are two very well known politicians in the Hispanic community," noted Bendixen, a longtime Democratic pollster. "But the Anglo community needs to get to know them better and needs to decide which one they will feel will be a better representative in Washington."

Likewise, the race between Lincoln Diaz-Balart's brother, Mario, and Joe Garcia is going to be a contest decided by non Cuban voters. According to Bendixen, Mario Diaz-Balart is leading Joe Garcia, 44-39, with 17 percent undecided.

"Independent voters will be the key in this district," Bendixen said. "This is a district with a lot of younger families, younger voters, many of them registered in the last ten years and they registered independent."

The fact that the Diaz-Balarts are polling in the low 40s suggests the two incumbents are vulnerable. "Any incumbent congressman polling at this stage less than 50 percent needs to worry," Bendixen noted.

By comparison, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who has served in Congress for almost 20 years, is easily ahead of her Democratic opponent Annette Taddeo.

The poll shows Ros-Lehtinen with 58 percent of the vote compared to just 31 percent for the political newcomer.

"The lead of Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in a very Democratic year is impressive," Bendixen said. "She not only leads among Cuban Hispanics but among non Cuban Hispanics, a group that traditionally votes for Democratic candidates."

The poll among registered voters defies conventional wisdom, especially in the races involving Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart and their two Democratic rivals.

All four candidates have stressed their differences on U.S.-Cuba policy, with the Diaz-Balarts maintaining a traditional hardliner approach that continues the current policies of the Bush Administration while the two Democrats have campaigned on a platform for easing travel restrictions to the island by family members and allowing Cuban Americans to send more money to their relatives in Cuba.

In both races, however, Cuban-Americans have already made up their minds. Lincoln Diaz-Balart captures 57 percent of the Cuban vote to 27 percent for Martinez.  Between Mario Diaz-Balart and Joe Garcia, the numbers are even more dramatic.

Mario Diaz-Balart receives 65 percent of the Cuban vote to 26 percent for Garcia, the former executive director for the Cuban American National Foundation. Only 9 percent of Cuban voters say they are undecided.

The reason Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia are within striking distance of their opponents is because of the support they are each getting from non- Cubans.

Raul Martinez captures 44 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics (to just 31 percent for Lincoln Diaz-Balart) and 48 percent of Anglos and blacks (compared to only 26 percent for Lincoln Diaz-Balart).

Garcia receives 48 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote (to just 36 percent for Mario Diaz-Balart) and 45 percent of the Anglo and black vote (compared to 33 percent for Mario Diaz-Balart).

And in both cases the largest blocks of undecided – the folks who will determine the outcome of these races – are among these non-Cuban groups.

"It is ironic, that Cuba issues and the Cuban vote will not be important in deciding the winner," Bendixen said. "The Cuban vote is pretty much decided. It will be the Anglos who will have a bigger say in who wins in November."

That means stressing issues such as the economy and the war in Iraq.

"Let's see what the candidates do," Bendixen added. "All four of them would probably feel more comfortable continuing their campaigning mostly among Hispanics and mostly among Cubans. They need to break that pattern and get outside of the communities and the constituencies they have always campaigned in and go seek Anglo votes, go seek black votes, go seek non-Cuban Hispanic voters. The candidates who do better at that will win in November."

(© MMVIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

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