Defede Columns

Poll: McCain vs. Obama

(CBS4) Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain in Miami-Dade County, according to a new poll released Monday.

The poll by Sergio Bendixen, a longtime Democratic pollster, shows Obama ahead of McCain by 12 points. Obama is favored by 47 percent of the voters surveyed compared to 35 percent for McCain. Eighteen percent are undecided.

The poll of 800 registered voters between June 6 and June 22 has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

The results reveal troubling signs for both candidates.

Bendixen noted that although a 12 point lead by Obama "sounds like a very good result," he said "in reality it is only a mediocre result because Senator Obama is underperforming among Hispanic voters.

"John Kerry got about 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in Miami-Dade County, while Senator Obama is only getting about 30 percent," he said.

Kerry won Miami-Dade overall by just 6 points – 53 percent to 47 percent – but still lost the state of Florida by almost 400,000 votes. In order for a Democrat to have a chance of winning the state, they must win the South Florida counties by large margins to offset the beating they will take in Central and North Florida.

For Obama to have a chance of winning Florida, he needs to come out of Miami-Dade with a 12 to 15 point advantage and the only way to do that is to capture close to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Right now, according to the poll, McCain is capturing 50 percent of Hispanic vote with 20 percent undecided.

Among Cubans, McCain is garnering 60 percent of vote to just 21 percent for Obama. Just as impressive is the fact McCain is tied with Obama among non-Cuban Hispanics. McCain has 39 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanics to 40 percent for Obama. Twenty-one percent of non-Cuban Hispanics are undecided.

If Obama wants to have a chance to win, he needs to be doing better among non-Cuban Hispanics, who traditionally favor Democratic candidates but who are reluctant to support Obama.

Even among those specifically identifying themselves as Hispanic Democrats, Obama is barely getting 50 percent of the vote. And 25 percent of Hispanic Democrats say they are supporting John McCain.

More than likely, many of these Democrats were Hillary Clinton supporters who are unwilling – at least for now – to support Obama. Twenty-four percent of Hispanic Democrats say they are still undecided.

Among Anglos and blacks, Obama has a sizeable lead. Obama is capturing 49 percent of the Anglo vote (compared to 32 percent for McCain) and 87 percent of black vote (compared to just three percent for McCain).

The challenge for McCain is to improve his standing among Anglos and independents.

"McCain needs to improve his standing among independent voters," Bendixen said. "That is supposedly one of his strengths at the national level but he is underperforming in Miami-Dade among independents."

Obama received 42 percent of the vote from independents with 33 percent going to McCain. Twenty-five percent are undecided.

The Bendixen poll also confirms the generational storyline that is playing out nationally. Obama beats McCain among every age group except one – voters over 65.

Registered voters between 18 and 34 favor Obama by more than 2 to 1.

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