Apr 10, 2008 11:38 pm US/Eastern
The Hurricane Soothsayer
MIAMI (CBS4) ―
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Jim DeFede, CBS4 Reporter/Commentator
CBS
Every year Dr. William Gray, the eminent hurricane researcher/soothsayer from Colorado State University, offers his scholarly assessment on the number of storms expected to form in the Atlantic.
And almost every year he's wrong.
Last year, for example, Dr. Gray predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
The actual numbers: 14, 6 and 2.
This year, Gray is predicting 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
"One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons," Gray noted.
Oh, well, that certainly explains it. Thanks for clearing that up.
Does it seem strange to anyone else that the foremost expert on hurricanes comes from a state that has never actually seen a hurricane?
And if that doesn't shake your confidence in the research emanating from Colorado State University, then try this:
I'm a product of Colorado State University.
That's right; I went to CSU from 1981 through 1986. Go Rams!
I loved my time in Fort Collins, Colorado. The drinking. The parties. The drinking. (Did I mention that I didn't graduate?)
Of course, I wasn't your typical student. And I do recall that CSU had some pretty smart professors. But still, I'm fairly certain you could get the same results as Dr. Gray using nothing more than a handful of darts, a dart board and a bottle of tequila. (Now that I think about it, I pretty sure I did some of that hurricane research at CSU.)
You can't blame Dr. Gray, though, for getting into the hurricane prediction racket – and it is a racket. This week, while Colorado was facing yet another major snow storm, Dr. Gray was attending hurricane conferences in Orlando and the Bahamas. Sounds to me like someone wanted to go to Disneyworld and then work on his tan.
And the beauty of Dr. Gray's predictions is that he gets to keep revising them throughout the year. If halfway through the hurricane season he sees that his numbers are too high, he "revises" his prediction with lower numbers. I would have done a lot better in the station's NCAA pool if halfway through the tournament I could have "revised" my selections.
But instead of focusing on why Dr. Gray's predictions are often wrong, a better question might be: Why do we in the media make such a big deal out of them?
Is anyone going to do anything different today because of what Dr. Gray announced yesterday? Probably not.
The one benefit Gray's predictions serve is to act as a reminder that hurricane season is approaching and we all should stock up on supplies. But other than that, the info is pretty useless to the average person.
During last week's hurricane conference, several reporters started challenging Dr. Gray because his predictions have been wrong recently.
"It's tough to tell you what the future is going to be, try it" Gray opined during the conference in Orlando last week. "Now if you will excuse me, I have to go to SeaWorld to have my picture taken with Shamu the Killer Whale."
Alright, I made up the last part of that quote about SeaWorld and Shamu. But Dr. Gray did throw down the gauntlet by challenging the rest of us to make hurricane.
"Try it," he exclaimed.
Okay, I will.
Here now is the Official 2008 Jim DeFede CBS4 News Tropical Storm Prediction/Guesstimate of Atlantic Hurricane Activity.
There will be 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
That's right, I'm going with 13 – 7 – 3.
Naturally I reserve the right to revise these predictions up to the last day of hurricane season. But until then, I'm feeling very good about these guesses – I mean forecasts.
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