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May 7, 2008 10:15 am US/Eastern
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Web Exclusive: "Stick A Fork In Her, She's Done"
Jim Defede Writes Columns Exclusively For CBS4.com
See Jim's Commentary On CBS4 This Morning
MIAMI (CBS4) ―
Stick a Fork in Her, She's Done By Jim DeFede
"It's full speed on to the White House." --Hillary Clinton following her narrow win in Indiana
Defiant or delusional?
Those were the two words that kept popping into my head watching Hillary Clinton deliver her speech last night in Indiana. Barack Obama had just blown her out in North Carolina, racking up a 14 point win and beating her by 230,000 votes. And in Indiana, a state she needed to win big, the race was so close she gave her "victory" speech before the final outcome was even known.
In fact, as she spoke, the gap between the two of them in Hoosierland kept shrinking. I was waiting for someone to hand Clinton a note during her speech telling her the race was tightening and for her to turn to the camera and say, ala Emily Litella, "Never mind."
In some ways you have to admire Clinton's never-say-die attitude. But you begin to wonder if she is capable of leaving the stage gracefully.
This morning the talk is all about the end game. The pundits are no longer asking, "Will she quit?" Instead they are asking, "When will she quit?"
Will she want to go out on a high note, perhaps after an expected win next week in West Virginia? Or will she wait two weeks until she and Obama split contests in Kentucky, where Clinton is likely to win, and Oregon, where he is ahead?
Will she stay in the race until the end of May, when the rules committee of the Democratic Party meets to decide the fate of Florida and Michigan? Or will she employ some sort of doomsday scenario and go scorched earth all the way to the August convention?
No one is offering Clinton any realistic hope of gaining the nomination. Her last chance came and went in North Carolina. She needed an upset in the state Obama was heavily favored to win. A "game changer" is how Clinton last week was describing the contest in North Carolina, a state where Clinton poured an enormous amount of time and money.
It was her version of a Hail Mary pass and like most Hail Mary's the ball was batted away.
Her win in Pennsylvania gave her two important things: time and money; time to continue the campaign, and the money to compete in Indiana and North Carolina. But after last night's results, time is running out and the money is gone.
Donors will be loathe to contribute anymore to a campaign that has no hope of succeeding. In recent days Clinton has refused to say whether she has loaned her campaign money – a sure sign that she has done just that. Wednesday the Associated Press confirmed that Clinton leant her campaign $6.4 million last month. This is in addition to the $5 million she leant her campaign earlier this year.
So here is my prediction:
In the next 72 hours you will see four or five super delegates break to Obama. Clinton, who is meeting with senior advisors today, will pull back on her negative ads against Obama. Both candidates will begin spending more and more of their time attacking John McCain. Clinton will win next week's primary in West Virginia. On May 20, she will win Kentucky, Obama; however, will win Oregon, which will give him a majority of the elected delegates.
At this point there is a strong possibility that Clinton drops out of the race.
More than likely, however, I think Clinton will keep her promise of staying in it until the end and limp through the final few primaries. In the meantime, she and Obama will work out a deal for seating the delegates from Michigan (dividing the delegation based on the popular national vote) and Florida (using the January 29 vote but cutting the number of delegates awarded in half).
She will win the last primary in Puerto Rico on June 3, but it will be meaningless, and will then formally drop out of the race no later than June 6 – D-Day.
And here is one more prediction: Bill Clinton will be on a mission to repair his reputation with the black community by working like a madman for Obama this fall.
Whether that's a good thing or not, we'll have to wait and see.