DeFede Columns

MIAMI (CBS4) ― Over the years, we here in Florida have become spoiled by the attention we receive during presidential elections. Whether it was George Bush, Bill Clinton, Al Gore or John Kerry, it seemed every candidate believed the path to the White House ran through the sunshine state.

But will Barack Obama follow that script or will he electorally MapQuest a route to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue that will instead focus on western states such as Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico?

Will he spend the time and money needed to be competitive in Florida or will he dump his considerable war chest into Ohio and Pennsylvania?
 
"It's an open question," admits Mitch Ceasar, the Democratic Party chairman for Broward County. "Normally where I say Florida is always in play, I can't say that with certainty this year."
 
The reason it is an open question is that the Clinton campaign has for months promoted the theory that Obama can't beat John McCain in Florida. And if he can't beat McCain here, then why compete?
 
Obama certainly has a Florida problem. In his fight with Hillary Clinton, he is seen as the candidate seeking to block Florida's primary vote from counting and he hasn't had a public event in the state since August 25.

McCain will have two powerful weapons working the state – Charlie Crist, Florida's popular centrist governor, and Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Democrat-turned-independent who is expected to spend much of the Fall campaign camped out in South Florida hoping to exploit Obama's perceived weakness among Jewish voters.

"A lot of Florida doesn't know Obama yet," says State Rep. Dan Gelber, a Florida superdelegate who last week endorsed the Illinois senator. "Since he hasn't been here they haven't heard him talking about Florida's issues and concerns. I think he has work to do here, but this is clearly a state he can win."

That work begins next week for Obama when he travels to Florida for a series of events. He will arrive in Central Florida on May 21 and then travel to Miami the next day where he is expected to spend two days holding rallies and fundraisers.

Gelber recently wrote on his blog at www.dangelber.com that it would be a mistake for Democrats to give up on Florida in November, noting that Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the state by nearly 400,000 voters.

Gelber is worried that the conventional wisdom that Obama shouldn't compete in Florida may take hold among party leaders in Washington and he has been trying to persuade them the state is still fertile ground for Democrats.

And Kirk Wagar, Obama's finance chairman in Florida, says that the long primary season actually works to Florida's advantage. Because the Democratic campaign has dragged on, the Democrats already have campaign organizations in other key states.
 
"We are already set up in Ohio and Pennsylvania," he says. "We have precinct captains in Colorado, and Oregon, and New Mexico and all of the other states we've had to compete in through this long process. So we are set up in those states far earlier than we ever have been before. The only states where we are not set up are Florida and Michigan, so we can now focus our energies on building organizations in those states. We can throw some bodies at Florida and see what comes of it."

Mitch Ceasar says ultimately a decision about Florida won't be made by the Obama campaign for several months. "Decisions like that will never be made before Labor Day," he says. "There will be polling to see where we are at then."

A recent Quinnipiac poll had Hillary Clinton easily beating John McCain in Florida, but McCain was ahead of Obama 43-42.
 
"Eight years ago, Al Gore was down 15 points in Florida at this time in the campaign," Wagar notes. "The fact that we are virtually tied with McCain, who spent millions in the state during the primary, who has visited the state countless times and who has the backing of the governor, is amazing. That tells me we are going to be able to compete here."

Even if Obama ultimately decides not to make an all out push to win Florida, it is likely he will compete here if for no other reason than to force McCain to spend time and money in a state he has to win. "Democrats can lose Florida and still win the presidency," says Gelber, the state representative. "But if Republicans lose Florida they can't win the White House. So why not take a shot at it?"

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