Aug 6, 2009 10:21 am US/Eastern
NOAA Lowers Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Numbers
WASHINGTON (CBS4) ―
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Hurricane Ike is seen moving ashore southeast of Galveston, Texas, in this NOAA satellite image from Sept. 12, 2008.
AP
The Atlantic Hurricane season is in its third month, and so far, it's been a very slow season for the National Hurricane Center. Only one tropical depression has formed through August 6, but the peak season is now upon everyone on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there's now a 90 percent chance of a normal or below normal season.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is now forecasting 7 to 11 named storms, 3 to 6 of which will become hurricanes, and 1 -2 of those will become major hurricanes. The Climate Prediction Center said there is less activity due to El Niño, which is predicted to strengthen during the coming months.
El Niño is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon which, according to the Climate Prediction Center, is producing stronger westerly winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The stronger winds are creating enough wind shear, or changing of the wind speed and direction as you go up through the atmosphere, which tears apart storms trying to form.
The update comes just days after researchers at Colorado State University downgraded their forecast for the season to 10 named storms, four of which will be hurricanes, and 2 will be major storms. In May, NOAA forecasters predicted a normal hurricane season with nine to 14 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and one to three of those would likely be major storms.
By August 6 of 2008, there had been five named storms, including two hurricanes. Through the entire 2008 hurricane season, there were 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes.
The Climate Prediction Center urged that coastal residents not let their guard down and reminded people that powerful storms like Betsy, Bob, and Danny struck during El Niño years.
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