May 22, 2008 12:56 pm US/Eastern
NOAA Predicts 6 To 9 Hurricanes In 2008
Gerry Bell Is NOAA's Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster
Predicted: 2 to 5 Storms Reaching Major Hurricane Status
TAMPA (CBS4) ―
It looks like the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be pretty much like the 2007 season.
According to Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, his team has formulated that this year there's a 65-percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season.
Bell's team predicts that we could see 12 to 16 named storms this year. Of those, 6 to 9 will reach hurricane strength with 2 to 5 storms reaching major hurricane status of at least a Category 3 with winds of more than 110 mph. How confident are they? Geller said there's a 60 to 70 percent chance their predictions will hit those ranges.
In 2007, there were 15 named storms. Of those, 6 were hurricanes; 2 major ones. The government had predicted 13 to 17 named storms, with 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 five major hurricanes.
An average season has 11 named storms, including 6 hurricanes – 2 of which reach major hurricane strength.
This year was the first time NOAA forecasters gave a probability because some forecasters believe people pay too much attention to their seasonal forecasts. They stress residents should always be prepared no matter what the seasonal forecasts is because even a slow season can be disastrous.
"Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now -- before a storm threatens," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. "Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery."
Earlier this year, Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray predicted there would 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes with 4 of those becoming major hurricanes in 2008.
Last year Gray, like NOAA, missed the mark. Before the start of the season, he and his team had predicted 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes with 5 of those becoming major hurricanes.
Hurricane season begins June 1st.
(© 2008 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)
