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Nov 28, 2009 10:46 am US/Eastern
Study: El Niño May Shift Due To Climate Change
MIAMI (CBS4) ―
As the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end on Monday, South Floridians can breathe a sigh of relief as El Niño kept the Atlantic fairly tranquil throughout the summer. But the quiet hurricane season may be a one year wonder, depending on the strength of the current El Niño and according to a new UM study, climate change.
According to UM professor of meteorology Ben Kirtman, El Niño's are forming further to the west in the Pacific Ocean, CBS4 news partner the Miami Herald reported. This would differ from the current El Niño which typically occurs in the Eastern Pacific just off the coast of South America.
Kirtman and his team theorize that as the El Niño's form further west and in more frequency, it could start to weaken the shield that El Niño's typically put over the Atlantic during hurricane season. Kirtman's team came to the conclusion after running 150 years of Pacific temperatures through 11 global warming models developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Eight of those models showed El Niño shifting toward the central Pacific, according to the Herald.
Forecasters say the tropics in the "Atlantic multidecadal oscillation," which can last decades, according to the Herald. It's put together by measuring Atlantic sea temperatures and other climate factors. The oscillation is expected to continue turning out storms in increasing numbers and intensity for the foreseeable future.
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