Sep 20, 2007 3:12 pm US/Eastern
NHC's Rappaport On The Cone Of Uncertainty
MIAMI-DADE (CBS) ―
When a hurricane or tropical storm threatens, people want to know about the cone of uncertainty, which is probably one of the most watched forecasting tools on television.
In part three of his conversation with the acting director of the National Hurricane Center, CBS stattion WFOR-TV in Miami Chief Meteorologist David Bernard talks to Ed Rappaport about the cone of uncertainty.
"Do you think the public understands what the forecast is when it's put out? The cone is what, I think, people can look at really quickly and sort of, in their minds, you know, understand what that means," asked Bernard.
"The cone of uncertainty gives a feel for where the center of the hurricane will go over the next five days. And when looking at the cone, on average, the center will stay within that cone about two-thirds of the time. So about a third of the time, it could actually venture outside of that. Of course, hurricanes are not a point. They can extend hundreds of miles, so the area at risk actually can be larger than the cone itself."
Rappaport goes on to say, "We've introduced a new product in the last few years, one that provides the chance of getting hurricane conditions or tropical storm conditions at your location. It's called Wind Speed Probabilities, and it will tell you at your location what your risk is for hurricane conditions over the next five days."
"What do you think the message is when, let's say, South Florida is just beginning to get into a cone or first enters a cone, maybe in that day-four or five period?" asked Bernard.
Rappaport replied, "If you're in the cone, then there is some potential impact for you in the next five days. Again, I would point people to the Probabilities to know whether that's a risk of hurricane conditions or tropical storm conditions, it makes a big difference, and just what those chances are. Is it one in ten? Is it one in two? You can't get that information from the cone."
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