Politics

DeFede: Obama Moves Senior Staff Into Florida

Signals Intention Campaign Believes It Can Win Florida

MIAMI (CBS4) ― Steve Hildebrand is trying to prove a point. Turning to the man sitting in the booth behind him he asks if the man is registered to vote. The man nods that he is.

"Who are you going to vote for?" asks Hildebrand, sporting a Barack Obama t-shirt.

"I'm not sure I'm going to vote," the young man responds.

"Come on," Hildebrand laughs, more stunned than embarrassed that his attempt to prove that young people are excited by this year's election has fallen flat. The best that he can gain from the fellow is that he will think about voting.

The notion that Hildebrand, the deputy campaign manager for Barack Obama, is sitting inside The Abbey, a bar on Miami Beach, less than three weeks before Election Day, however, suggests a far greater point: The Obama campaign is serious about Florida.

Ten days ago, without much fanfare or notice, Hildebrand moved from the campaign's headquarters in Chicago to oversee operations in Miami. At the same time, Paul Tewes, the chief general election strategist for the campaign, took up residence in Tampa, where the state headquarters is located.

The Atlantic magazine describes Hildebrand and Tewes as the Obama campaign's "top two field generals." And so the decision to move them from Chicago to Florida for the duration of the election suggests the campaign has identified Florida as integral to winning the election.

"We have numbers on our side," Hildebrand said Tuesday night over a beer. "We have an organization that is unprecedented in American politics."

Here are the numbers he's talking about:

Although the final registration figures aren't in yet across the state, Hildebrand expects there to be 600,000 to 700,000 more registered Democrats in the state than Republicans. (By comparison, in 2006, there were about 250,000 more Democrats than Republicans.)

In 2004, approximately 600,000 African Americans who were registered to vote didn't. They just stayed home on Election Day for a variety of reasons, either they were still bitter over the 2000 election and believed their vote wouldn't count or they just weren't excited about voting for John Kerry.

This year, Hildebrand says, the Obama campaign is expecting massive turnout in the black community.

Likewise, in 2004, 900,000 young people who were registered to vote failed to cast a ballot in Florida. This year, Obama's campaign has excited young voters as never before, Hildebrand says, and his failed demonstration with the young man in the booth behind us not with standing, he argues the turnout among young voters will be much higher because they understand what is at stake with the economy and how it will affect their future.

And yet the perception remains that Florida is a difficult state for Obama.

The reasons are threefold: First, Obama did not compete here during the primary so voters did not have a chance to see and hear him for themselves. Second, the demographics of the state are tough for Obama. A state electorate that features senior citizens, military personnel, and a large block of Jewish voters, who remain skeptical of Obama, would seemingly favor John McCain. And third, McCain enjoys the support of Governor Charlie Crist and his campaign organization.

Despite all of this, a CNN/Time Magazine poll released Wednesday shows Obama with a five-point lead over McCain in Florida, 51-46.

Obama is currently outspending John McCain on radio and TV commercials by a margin of at least five-to-one in Florida and the Obama campaign says it has 350 paid staffers operating out of 100 offices across the state. In Miami-Dade County alone there are 11 Obama offices up and running.

Listening to the radio and you get a sense of Obama financial advantage. In recent days, I have heard an Obama pro-choice commercial on a country music station (an odd media buy if you consider country music fans as being fairly conservative) and another ad, on an even more unlikely station, the Britney Spears loving Y-100, in which Obama defends himself against attacks that he is friends with former 60s radical Bill Ayers. (I'd be shocked if many of the folks listening to Y-100 even know who Bill Ayers is.)

Asked about these unusual ad buys, Hildebrand smiles: "We have a lot of money."

Hildebrand also says the campaign's internal polls show Obama doing "close" to the number of Jewish voters that Kerry received in 2004.

And as for the advantage to McCain stemming from Charlie Crist being governor, once again Hildebrand smiles: "There is a Republican governor here who in recent days has done a lot to distance himself from John McCain and his campaign. I don't expect Charlie Crist will put a lot of resources behind a candidate who is declining in the polls."

Crist has come under fire in recent days for seeming to pull away from McCain. "My first and foremost responsibility is to the people of Florida," Crist said Tuesday. "I'm going to stay focused on mission one which is Florida and Florida's people. When I have time to help out my friend, I'm eager and anxious to do so."

The tone is a marked departure for Crist who, when he was on the shortlist for vice president, often traveled around the country with McCain. Now he doesn't seem to have time for McCain. Just last weekend, Crist failed to attend a McCain rally in the state last weekend opting instead to go to Disney World.

Erin VanSickle, the communications director for the state Republican Party, said Hildebrand's arrival in South Florida could be a sign that the Obama folks are worried and that they "need more help" because the locals weren't getting the job done.

"We have a strong grassroots campaign on the ground," she argues. "We're confident we will win the state of Florida."

She cites absentee ballots as an example of their efforts, saying far more Republicans had requested absentee ballots than Democrats.

The McCain campaign has 70 offices across the state. The campaign, however, declined to say how many paid staffers they have in the state. A McCain official, who did not want to be identified by name, says both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani outspent McCain in Florida during the primary and yet McCain still won.

The staffer then adds it is obvious why Hildebrand was in the state. "When you have a candidate who says he would negotiate unconditionally with the Castro brothers and with Hugo Chavez, then you need help explaining to people in South Florida why they should vote for you," the official says.

The decision to deploy Hildebrand to Florida started being considered four weeks ago after he came to Miami on a fundraising trip and met with between 40 and 50 community leaders and elected officials. He quickly realized the campaign was missing an opportunity. The local officials needed more contact with the headquarters in Chicago and more support in getting out the vote between now and the election. "What we needed was somebody local," he says. "Somebody in a leadership post to deal with them."

Back in Chicago, he volunteered. "I assessed all the states," he says, but decided this was the best place for him to be.

On Monday, at the Mahogany Grille in Miami Gardens, Hildebrand met with 30 black ministers, pushing early voting which starts next week and reinforcing how important it will be for them to get people to the polls.

The Obama campaign has thousands of volunteers organized into "neighborhood teams" spread across the state. (Indeed the "neighborhood team" concept – which was devised by Republicans in the 2000 and 2004 elections – has been adopted, some might say co-opted, by the Obama campaign and is being used in all of the battleground states)

And although Hildebrand is still involved in the national campaign and talks regularly to campaign officials in other battleground states mapping strategy, his focus is turning out the vote in Miami-Dade County.

"Mayor Manny Diaz is my new best friend," he says.

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