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Mar 10, 2008 5:50 pm US/Eastern
NFL Draft an Inexact Science
MIAMI (CBS4.com) ―
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2007 number one pick QB Jamarcus Russell was considered lazy by many scouts and now may weigh in at more than 300 pounds.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
With the Dolphins owning the number one overall pick in the 2008 Draft, the chance for a major bust is always attached to that pick. What compounds the problem is the signing bonus guaranteed to the number one pick will probably be in the neighborhood of $35 million. But being the number one overall pick doesn't guarantee success for the player or for the team picking.
Take last year's number one pick QB Jamarcus Russell. He was touted as having the strongest arm in the NFL before he ever took a snap. He ended the year with a pass completion percentage slightly above 50% and twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes. Now, he's reported to be weighing in around 300 pounds, according to
SI.com. If that weight holds true, it would make him the fattest quarterback in the league, surpassing QB Jared Lorenzen of the New York Giants.
Since 1996, only 3 of the number one overall picks have made it to the Super Bowl, OT Orlando Pace, QB Peyton Manning, and QB Eli Manning. The other seven feature major busts in QB Tim Couch who went number one overall to Cleveland, and QB Michael Vick, both of which are out of the league currently. Out of the remaining five, only QB Carson Palmer has shown a consistently strong performance.
Looking back even further, only three other starting players has won a Super Bowl since 1984, QB Troy Aikman, WR Keyshawn Johnson, and DT Russell Maryland. Both Aikman and Maryland played for the Cowboys dynasty of the 1990's.
Needless to say the Dolphins have quite a conundrum on their hands. Do they try and trade out of the number one pick to acquire multiple picks to fill holes on a bad roster, or do they take a flyer on the number one pick become the next Peyton Manning?
The smart money would be for the Dolphins to target Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long. He's a massive offensive tackle who could bring stability to the Dolphins porous offensive line, and open holes for returning RB Ronnie Brown. Plus, with a few exceptions, offensive linemen taken in the top 5 of the draft carry the lowest risk factor. Just look at the Cleveland Browns who went from NFL doormat to playoff contender during the Pro Bowl year of rookie OT Joe Thomas.
However, as of early March, the Dolphins seem to be zeroing in on former Boston College quarterback, Matt Ryan. Nicknamed "Matty Ice" by his teammates, Ryan brings both the physical stature, standing around 6'5", and the intangibles of almost willing a team to win. Still, many scouts have questions about his arm strength.
For their part, the Dolphins have requested the most video about Ryan, compared to the other rumored targets for the Dolphins including: DT Glenn Dorsey from LSU, DE Chris Long of Virginia, OT Jake Long of Michigan, and RB Darren McFadden of Arkansas.
Needless to say, you will probably do better
picking the NCAA tournament, than banking on a number one overall pick in the NFL.
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